Agenda Information Sheet
DEPARTMENT: Water Utilities
CM/ ACM: Howard Martin, Utilities, 349-8232
Date: February 27, 2017
SUBJECT
Title
Receive a report and hold a discussion regarding the Water and Wastewater Forecasts for FY 2017-18 Annual Program of Services and the FY 2018-22 Capital Improvement Plans.
Body
BACKGROUND
Staff has prepared updated Water and Wastewater forecasts that will support development of the FY 2018-2022 CIP's, FY 2017-2018 operating budgets, and other long-range service requirements. Forecasts are updated annually based on analyses of historical data to determine relationships between population, customers, production, treatment and consumption or usage data. This information is then compared to population growth projections and other land use assumptions to develop the new forecasts. As a part of these analyses, staff compared our population projections to the North Central Texas Council of Government (NCTCOG) population forecasts. The NCTCOG population forecasts for the North Central Texas 2040 Demographic Forecast provides long range estimates for two target years, 2035 and 2040. Denton staff population forecasts are approximately the same as the NCTCOG forecasts for these target years.
At this time, the Water forecast is virtually unchanged from the prior year. However, staff is continuing to evaluate the possible trend of decreasing gallons per capita per day (GPCD), as we indicated in the 2015 Water and Wastewater Rate Study. Staff is also continuing to further analyze correlations between total annual rainfall, rainfall patterns, and per capita water demand variability. The Wastewater forecast has continued previously revised methods that currently provide accurate predictions of residential and commercial billed volumes.
Exhibit 1 provides a summary of the Water utility forecast. Major points include the following:
* Projected water demands for Denton will not exceed its raw water rights from Lake Ray Roberts...
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